Sunday, 31 January 2021
Friday, 11 December 2020
.Very few people think at all. I say it that again. Very few people think about anything at all. They simply react n response to their senses and do very little original planning, assembling, designing or creating. The majority simply imitate the thinking and behavior of others. People act automatically. The herding instinct behavior of the majority, without thinking of their actions and the impact of themselves or others.
Due diligence, hard work, discipline combine with patience and consistency and the realization of the "right type of thinking" can lead us to achieve a result with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all randomness: either by taking high, enormous and unconscious risks, or by being extraordinarily lucky. Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.
Sunday, 6 December 2020
Monday, 31 August 2020
No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.
“No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.” ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb
It is right frame of your mind, your state of mind, your mindset and emotion. It is a game of choice as well as decision making and your educated guess.
By the same token there’s really nothing that you can guess at that you know nothing about.
The quality of our lives is the sum of decision quality plus luck and our decision will also be heavily influenced by randomness.
An expert in any field will have an advantage over a rookie. But neither the veteran nor the rookie can be sure what the next flip will look like. The veteran will just have a better guess.
If we misrepresent the world at the extremes of right and wrong, with no shades of grey in between, our ability to make good choices—choices about how we are supposed to be allocating our resources, what kind of decisions we are supposed to be making, and what kind of actions we are supposed to be taking—will suffer.
Decisions are bets on the future, and they aren’t right or wrong based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. An unwanted result doesn’t make our decision wrong if we thought about the alternatives and probabilities in advance and allocated our resources accordingly.





